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Volume2 ClaytonMasterPlan DemographicStudy

2026-04-11 Portal: claytonschools Section: 2024. There are 5 schools #q0952

2024-2025 Enrollment and Demographics Study © Business Information Services, LLC Page 35 Figures 53-55. (Above) District enrollment projections, by grade, for 2026-2035. (Right) Percentage enrollment in each class, by year. K 5.85% 1st 6.52% 2nd 6.71% 3rd 7.00% 4th 7.15% 5th 8.06% 6th 7.05% 7th 8.87% 8th 8.06% 9th 9.11% 10th 8.06% 11th 9.74% 12th 7.82% 2034-35 2024- 2025 2025- 2026 2026- 2027 2027- 2028 2028- 2029 2029- 2030 2030- 2031 2031- 2032 2032- 2033 2033- 2034 2034- 2035 Max 2,384 2,373 2,358 2,342 2,321 2,307 2,289 2,274 2,254 2,235 2,217 Average 2,384 2,352 2,325 2,298 2,273 2,239 2,211 2,181 2,148 2,116 2,085 Min 2,384 2,338 2,308 2,274 2,241 2,209 2,171 2,133 2,095 2,055 2,015 K 132 174 138 162 119 162 140 138 138 141 132 1 176 139 183 146 171 126 170 148 145 145 149 2 142 184 146 192 152 179 132 178 155 152 152 3 168 146 190 150 197 157 184 136 183 159 156 4 180 170 148 192 151 199 159 186 137 185 161 5 180 184 173 151 195 154 203 162 190 140 189 6 191 190 194 183 159 207 163 215 171 201 148 7 198 196 196 199 188 164 212 168 221 176 206 8 218 197 195 195 198 187 163 211 167 220 175 9 172 215 195 193 192 196 185 161 209 165 217 10 217 173 216 195 194 193 197 186 162 210 166 11 192 216 172 215 194 192 192 196 184 160 208 12 218 189 212 169 211 191 189 189 192 181 158 K 132 152 132 146 120 144 130 129 128 129 122 1 176 141 160 140 154 126 152 138 136 135 136 2 142 178 146 167 145 160 131 158 143 141 140 3 168 150 184 152 173 151 166 136 164 148 146 4 180 169 151 186 153 175 152 167 137 165 149 5 180 181 172 154 189 156 178 154 170 139 168 6 191 189 191 182 163 200 165 188 163 180 147 7 198 195 194 197 187 167 206 169 193 168 185 8 218 198 196 195 197 187 167 206 169 193 168 9 172 212 195 193 192 194 185 165 202 167 190 10 217 179 214 197 195 193 196 186 166 204 168 11 192 214 178 213 195 193 192 195 185 165 203 12 218 194 212 176 210 193 191 190 192 182 163 K 132 136 135 133 131 129 127 124 122 120 117 1 176 147 145 143 141 139 136 134 132 129 127 2 142 151 149 147 145 143 140 138 135 133 130 3 168 164 162 160 157 155 152 150 147 144 141 4 180 167 165 162 160 158 155 152 150 147 144 5 180 172 169 167 164 162 159 157 154 151 148 6 191 183 181 178 175 173 170 167 164 161 158 7 198 193 190 187 185 182 179 176 173 169 166 8 218 200 198 195 192 189 186 183 179 176 173 9 172 198 195 192 190 187 184 180 177 174 170 10 217 206 204 201 198 195 192 188 185 181 178 11 192 209 206 203 200 197 194 191 187 184 180 12 218 212 209 206 203 200 197 193 190 186 183 School District of Clayton Max Enrollment Projection Average Enrollment Projection Minimum Enrollment Projection School District of Clayton © Business Information Services, LLC Page 36 Figures 56-57. (Above) Three projection mod- els are compared against a trend model (purple line) (Left) If the district enrollment same growth during the last 10 years is projected out to the next 10. 2,384 2,310 2,261 2,227 2,200 2,181 2,158 2,119 2,069 2,032 2,001 1,900 1,950 2,000 2,050 2,100 2,150 2,200 2,250 2,300 2,350 2,400 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Trend Projection of The School District of Clayton (2025-2035) 1,900 1,950 2,000 2,050 2,100 2,150 2,200 2,250 2,300 2,350 2,400 Trend High-End Medium Low-End

School District of Clayton © Business Information Services, LLC Page 36 Figures 56-57. (Above) Three projection mod- els are compared against a trend model (purple line) (Left) If the district enrollment same growth during the last 10 years is projected out to the next 10. 2,384 2,310 2,261 2,227 2,200 2,181 2,158 2,119 2,069 2,032 2,001 1,900 1,950 2,000 2,050 2,100 2,150 2,200 2,250 2,300 2,350 2,400 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Trend Projection of The School District of Clayton (2025-2035) 1,900 1,950 2,000 2,050 2,100 2,150 2,200 2,250 2,300 2,350 2,400 Trend High-End Medium Low-End 2024-2025 Enrollment and Demographics Study © Business Information Services, LLC Page 37 Figure 59. Grade distribution in the School District of Clayton for the 2024-2025 school year. Figure 58. Grade distribution in School District of Clayton for the 2023 -24 school year. 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 132 176 142 168 180 180 191 198 218 172 217 192 218 Grade Distribution for The School District of Clayton (2024-2025) School District of Clayton © Business Information Services, LLC Page 38 Figures 60-61. Average number of persons per household, 1990-2033 and number of persons per household types, 2024. DEMOGRAPHICS PROFILE Figure 62. Number of persons per household types, 2023. One- person households predominate. 2.59 2.90 3.02 3.03 2.85 2.85 2.85 1990 2000 2010 2020 2023 2028 2033 Average Persons per HH

Number of persons per household types, 2023. One- person households predominate. 2.59 2.90 3.02 3.03 2.85 2.85 2.85 1990 2000 2010 2020 2023 2028 2033 Average Persons per HH 2024-2025 Enrollment and Demographics Study © Business Information Services, LLC Page 39 Figure 63. Estimated percentage change in childbearing-age population from 2023-2033. Figure 64. Number of childbearing-age women in the district and the percentage of childbearing-age women of the total population. 3,970 4,495 4,641 4,921 4,260 4,261 4,156 1990 2000 2010 2020 2023 2028 2033 Childbearing Women (18-44 yrs old) Total and Percentage Change 24.5% 25.3% 24.9% 24.7% 21.3% 21.3% 20.8% School District of Clayton © Business Information Services, LLC Page 40 Figure 66. Estimated percentage change in population under 5 years old from 2023 to 2033. Figure 65. Total number of children under 5 years old and percentage of the total population that is under 5 years old, 1990-2033. 583 685 539 599 806 907 891 1990 2000 2010 2020 2023 2028 2033 Under 5 Total and Percentage Change 3.6% 3.9% 2.9% 3.0% 4.0% 4.5% 4.4% 2024-2025 Enrollment and Demographics Study © Business Information Services, LLC Page 41 Figure 67. Estimated percentage change in population that is school- age, 5-17 years old, from 2023 to 2033. Figure 68. Total number of school-age children 5-17 years old and percentage of the total population that is school-age, 1990-2033. 1,838 2,290 2,316 2,624 3,685 3,484 3,561 1990 2000 2010 2020 2023 2028 2033 School-Age (5-17 yrs old) Total and Percentage Change 11.3% 12.9% 12.4% 13.2% 18.4% 17.4% 17.8%

Figure 68. Total number of school-age children 5-17 years old and percentage of the total population that is school-age, 1990-2033. 1,838 2,290 2,316 2,624 3,685 3,484 3,561 1990 2000 2010 2020 2023 2028 2033 School-Age (5-17 yrs old) Total and Percentage Change 11.3% 12.9% 12.4% 13.2% 18.4% 17.4% 17.8% School District of Clayton © Business Information Services, LLC Page 42 Figure 70. Estimated percentage change in population over 60 years old from 2023 to 2033. Figure 69. Total number of people over years old and percentage of the total population that is over 60 years old, 1990-2033. 2,918 2,495 2,951 3,847 3,869 4,015 4,095 1990 2000 2010 2020 2023 2028 2033 Over 60 Years Old Total and Percentage Change 18.0% 14.1% 15.9% 19.3% 19.4% 20.0% 20.4% 2024-2025 Enrollment and Demographics Study © Business Information Services, LLC Page 43 Figure 71. Estimated percentage change in total population in the district, from 2023 to 2033. Figure 72. Total population for The School District of Clayton, 1990- 2033, and percentage change in population 1990-2033. 16,227 17,745 18,618 19,934 19,989 20,040 20,028 1990 2000 2010 2020 2023 2028 2033 Population Total and Percentage Change 9.4% 4.9% 7.1% 0.3% 0.3% -0.1% School District of Clayton © Business Information Services, LLC Page 44 Figure 73. The growth stability index measures how stable the population growth has been during the past two years in an area. The closer to 1 the index is the higher likelihood the growth trend will continue.

The growth stability index measures how stable the population growth has been during the past two years in an area. The closer to 1 the index is the higher likelihood the growth trend will continue. 2024-2025 Enrollment and Demographics Study © Business Information Services, LLC Page 45 Figure 74. The expected value index measures how closely the population growth in an area for the last year equals what was expected to occur during the previous year. If a value is close to 1, then that means the population growth occurred exactly at the rate it was expected. A value greater than 1 means the growth is occurring faster than expected. Negative values mean the area is not growing at the level expected the previous year. Figure 75. Average salaries for varying industry occupations at the local level are applied to the workers in those occupations for each block group. Then the block group’s overall average salary is com- pared to the national average to form an index related to worker pay at the local level. The red areas have workers who earn more than 20 percent higher than the national average for those occupa- tions. School District of Clayton © Business Information Services, LLC Page 46 Figure 76. The diversity index measure the diversity of any population in which each person belongs to a unique race. A value of 1 indicates there is only one race represented in each Census block area. The lower the index, the more racial diversity exists.

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