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facilities_plan · claytonschools

Volume2 ClaytonMasterPlan DemographicStudy

2024-11-13 Portal: claytonschools Section: 2024. There are 5 schools #q0943

in the district—3 elementary schools, a middle school and a high school The district covers 3.21 sq. miles and there is a to- tal population in the district of 19,989. By 2033, the dis- trict’s population is expected to in- crease by only 39 persons. 2024-2025 Enrollment and Demographics Study © Business Information Services, LLC Page 7 REASONS FOR THE STUDY School District of Clayton © Business Information Services, LLC Page 8 LONG-RANGE PROJECTION ANALYSIS Figure 3. District K-12 Enrollment, 1991-2025. 2024-2025 Enrollment and Demographics Study © Business Information Services, LLC Page 9 School District of Clayton © Business Information Services, LLC Page 10 Figure 4. District K-12 enrollment trend, 2016-2025. Figure 5. District K-12 cohort survival rates, 2021-25. 2024-2025 Enrollment and Demographics Study © Business Information Services, LLC Page 11 School District of Clayton © Business Information Services, LLC Page 12 Figure 6. Census population for School District of Clayton, 1990-2020. Figure 7. Census school-age population in Clayton district. 1990 2000 2010 2020 % of Total Population Ages 5-17 12.8% 12.9% 12.4% 13.2% 1990 2000 2010 2020 Average Age of Population 38.1 years 34.5 years 35.1 years 36.2 years 2024-2025 Enrollment and Demographics Study © Business Information Services, LLC Page 13 Figure 8. Population of 5-Year Age Cohorts, 1990-2020 Censuses. School District of Clayton © Business Information Services, LLC Page 14 Figure 9. Birth data by ZIP codes, the Clayton district, 1999-2023. Figure 10. Proportion of Kindergarten-age children living in the dis- trict that enroll in the district’s Kindergarten classes, 2007-2025.

Figure 10. Proportion of Kindergarten-age children living in the dis- trict that enroll in the district’s Kindergarten classes, 2007-2025. 2024-2025 Enrollment and Demographics Study © Business Information Services, LLC Page 15 Figure 12. Housing and development data is used in time series fore- casting to produce the Model 5-Household Data ans Student Yield Ratios. Figure 11. Demographic data is used with time series forecasting in two projection models: Model 2 – Enrollment Projections from US Census and Student Yield Ratios, and Model 3 – Enrollment Projec- tions from Cohort Survival Rates and Kindergarten Pools. School District of Clayton © Business Information Services, LLC Page 16 Figure 13. Projection Model 1, 2021-2035. Figure 14. Projection Model 2, 2010-2035. 2024-2025 Enrollment and Demographics Study © Business Information Services, LLC Page 17 Figure 16. Projection Model 4, 2011-2035. Figure 15. Projection Model 3, 2016-2035. School District of Clayton © Business Information Services, LLC Page 18 Figure 17. Projection Model 5, 2011-2035.

School District of Clayton © Business Information Services, LLC Page 18 Figure 17. Projection Model 5, 2011-2035. 2024-2025 Enrollment and Demographics Study © Business Information Services, LLC Page 19 Projection Models School Year Model 1 District Trend Model 2 US Census Model 3 Cohort/ K-Pool Model 4 3rd Party Model 5 Household 2024-2025 2,384 2,384 2,384 2,384 2,384 2025-2026 2,339 2,338 2,344 2,364 2,373 2026-2027 2,305 2,307 2,329 2,335 2,357 2027-2028 2,270 2,275 2,288 2,306 2,341 2028-2029 2,236 2,241 2,290 2,271 2,324 2029-2030 2,201 2,207 2,250 2,235 2,307 2030-2031 2,166 2,171 2,226 2,199 2,289 2031-2032 2,132 2,133 2,202 2,162 2,271 2032-2033 2,097 2,095 2,176 2,124 2,253 2033-2034 2,063 2,055 2,145 2,085 2,235 2034-2035 2,028 2,014 2,122 2,045 2,216 MIN MAX Figure 18. Comparison of the five projection models, 2025-2035.

2024-2025 Enrollment and Demographics Study © Business Information Services, LLC Page 19 Projection Models School Year Model 1 District Trend Model 2 US Census Model 3 Cohort/ K-Pool Model 4 3rd Party Model 5 Household 2024-2025 2,384 2,384 2,384 2,384 2,384 2025-2026 2,339 2,338 2,344 2,364 2,373 2026-2027 2,305 2,307 2,329 2,335 2,357 2027-2028 2,270 2,275 2,288 2,306 2,341 2028-2029 2,236 2,241 2,290 2,271 2,324 2029-2030 2,201 2,207 2,250 2,235 2,307 2030-2031 2,166 2,171 2,226 2,199 2,289 2031-2032 2,132 2,133 2,202 2,162 2,271 2032-2033 2,097 2,095 2,176 2,124 2,253 2033-2034 2,063 2,055 2,145 2,085 2,235 2034-2035 2,028 2,014 2,122 2,045 2,216 MIN MAX Figure 18. Comparison of the five projection models, 2025-2035. School District of Clayton © Business Information Services, LLC Page 20 Figures 19-20. By school, by grade projections, 2025-2026. 2025-2026 School Grade Range K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 School Total Ralph M. Captain Elementary K - 5th 48 49 55 41 48 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 292 Glenridge Elementary K - 5th 48 47 54 48 55 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 315 Meramec Elementary K - 5th 56 45 70 61 65 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 363 152 141 179 150 168 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 970 Wydown Middle School 6th - 8th 0 0 0 0 0 0 189 195 198 0 0 0 0 582 0 0 0 0 0 0 189 195 198 0 0 0 0 582 Clayton High School 9th - 12th 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 212 179 214 194 799 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 212 179 214 194 799 Grade Level Totals K - 12th 152 141 179 150 168 180 189 195 198 212 179 214 194 2,351 2024-2025 School Grade Range K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 School Total Ralph M. Captain Elementary K - 5th 46 54 39 48 51 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 286 Glenridge Elementary K - 5th 44 53 45 55 63 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 323 Meramec Elementary K - 5th 42 69 58 65 66 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 369 132 176 142 168 180 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 978 Wydown Middle School 6th - 8th 0 0 0 0 0 0 191 198 218 0 0 0 0 607 0 0 0 0 0 0 191 198 218 0 0 0 0 607 Clayton High School 9th - 12th 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 172 217 192 218 799 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 172 217 192 218 799 Grade Level Totals K - 12th 132 176 142 168 180 180 191 198 218 172 217 192 218 2,384

Captain Elementary K - 5th 48 49 55 41 48 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 292 Glenridge Elementary K - 5th 48 47 54 48 55 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 315 Meramec Elementary K - 5th 56 45 70 61 65 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 363 152 141 179 150 168 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 970 Wydown Middle School 6th - 8th 0 0 0 0 0 0 189 195 198 0 0 0 0 582 0 0 0 0 0 0 189 195 198 0 0 0 0 582 Clayton High School 9th - 12th 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 212 179 214 194 799 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 212 179 214 194 799 Grade Level Totals K - 12th 152 141 179 150 168 180 189 195 198 212 179 214 194 2,351 2024-2025 School Grade Range K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 School Total Ralph M. Captain Elementary K - 5th 46 54 39 48 51 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 286 Glenridge Elementary K - 5th 44 53 45 55 63 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 323 Meramec Elementary K - 5th 42 69 58 65 66 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 369 132 176 142 168 180 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 978 Wydown Middle School 6th - 8th 0 0 0 0 0 0 191 198 218 0 0 0 0 607 0 0 0 0 0 0 191 198 218 0 0 0 0 607 Clayton High School 9th - 12th 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 172 217 192 218 799 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 172 217 192 218 799 Grade Level Totals K - 12th 132 176 142 168 180 180 191 198 218 172 217 192 218 2,384 2024-2025 Enrollment and Demographics Study © Business Information Services, LLC Page 21 2026-2027 School Grade Range K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 School Total Ralph M. Captain Elementary K - 5th 41 50 51 56 41 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 288 Glenridge Elementary K - 5th 42 51 49 55 48 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 301 Meramec Elementary K - 5th 49 59 46 72 62 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 355 132 160 146 183 151 172 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 944 Wydown Middle School 6th - 8th 0 0 0 0 0 0 191 194 196 0 0 0 0 581 0 0 0 0 0 0 191 194 196 0 0 0 0 581 Clayton High School 9th - 12th 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 195 214 178 212 799 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 195 214 178 212 799 Grade Level Totals K - 12th 132 160 146 183 151 172 191 194 196 195 214 178 212 2,324 2027-2028 School Grade Range K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 School Total Ralph M. Captain Elementary K - 5th 46 44 52 53 57 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 294 Glenridge Elementary K - 5th 46 44 53 51 56 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 299 Meramec Elementary K - 5th 54 52 62 48 73 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 352 146 140 167 152 186 154 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 945 Wydown Middle School 6th - 8th 0 0 0 0 0 0 182 197 195 0 0 0 0 574 0 0 0 0 0 0 182 197 195 0 0 0 0 574 Clayton High School 9th - 12th 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 193 197 213 176 779 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 193 197 213 176 779 Grade Level Totals K - 12th 146 140 167 152 186 154 182 197 195 193 197 213 176 2,298 Figures 21-22. By school, by grade projections, 2027-2028.

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